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Probabilistic Failure Analysis

Many of the problems we solve involve significant uncertainties in the input variables. This is particularly true for advanced concepts or advanced technologies where new ideas are being exploited. A typical example is the use of an advanced high-temperature ceramic matrix composite material (CMC) such as silicon carbide in a turbine vane application. A traditional deterministic failure analysis concluded that a test specimen undergoing a life verification test would survive unconditionally. But a subsequent probabilistic analysis revealed a significant failure risk due to material property uncertainties. While a turbine vane failure during laboratory testing is not considered catastrophic, such a failure during normal operational usage would be.

Failure Analysis of a SiC/SiC CMC Turbine Vane
The vane is exposed to 2700 °F gas for 1000 hours.
Will the vane survive or fail?

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